The following is a preview of the upcoming SEC tournament, which begins today. The SEC, a “power-five” conference in the NCAA, is arguably one of the best conferences in college basketball and sends a handful of teams to the Big Dance each year.
Some SEC teams (e.g. Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama) already have their bids to the NCAA Tournament all but secured and will just be looking to bolster their seeding by advancing in the tournament. Meanwhile, other bubble teams in the middle of the SEC standings can clinch themselves a bid in the Big Dance if they can pickup some wins.
Favorite: Tennessee (Ovr: 24-7, Conf: 14-4)
While there are a variety of realistic outcomes possible for the upcoming SEC tournament, Tennessee enters as the top seed. With one of the top defenses in the nation and a fast-paced offense that averages 80.2 points per game, they have the best case to win it all.
The Vols are ranked #4 in the country and are led by Sr. G Dalton Knecht, who averages an SEC-high 21.4 points per game. Entering the tournament, they have won seven of their last eight games. The stretch includes wins over nationally ranked teams like #13 Auburn, #16 Alabama, and #17 South Carolina. Along with Knecht, Jr. F Jonas Aidoo (12.2 PPG) and Jr. G Zakai Zeigler (11.4 PPG) have also averaged double-digit points for Tennessee. The Vols shoot 24.9 three-pointers per game, the second-most in the SEC behind Alabama. Knecht leads that charge with a 40.9% three-point percentage on 5.8 three-pointers taken per game.
Defensively, Tennessee concedes a 38.3% field-goal percentage to opponents, which is good for second-best in the NCAA. They also allow just 67.1 points per game, which is second in the SEC. Aidoo leads the Vols in both blocks per game (1.8) and rebounds per game (7.6), while Zeigler–one of the best defensive players in the nation–leads in steals per game (1.9).
While Tennessee is coming off an 85-81 home loss to #15 Kentucky, prospects for the upcoming SEC tournament and even the NCAA tournament that follows are still extremely high.
Contenders: Kentucky (Ovr: 23-8, Conf: 13-5), Alabama (Ovr: 21-10, Conf: 13-5), Florida (Ovr: 24-7, Conf: 13-5), Auburn (Ovr: 24-7, Conf: 13-5), South Carolina (Ovr: 25-6, Conf: 13-5)
Kentucky, Alabama, and Florida rank as the top three offensive teams in the SEC. However, the performance of their defenses, which have been more middle-of-the-line during the regular season, will make or break their success in the postseason.
Kentucky, with the exception of the 2020-21 season, has consistently been one of the top teams in the SEC regular season standings. However, they haven’t had much luck in the SEC tournament as of late – with their last conference championship not having been since the 2017-18 season. The Wildcats enter the postseason coming off a big 85-81 win on the road versus Tennessee on Saturday to secure the #2 seed in the SEC tournament. All five of Kentucky’s starters average double-digit points per game, with Sr. G Antonio Reeves leading the charge with 20.2 points. Fr. G Rob Dillingham (15.0 PPG), Fr. G Reed Sheppard (12.7 PPG), Sr. F Tre Mitchell (10.7 PPG), and Fr. G D.J. Wagner (10.3 PPG) make up a lot of the rest of the Wildcats’ offensive production. Kentucky leads the nation in three-point percentage (41.2%) and is second nationwide in points per game (89.5). Defensively, however, they are sixth and seventh, respectively, in opposing three-point percentage (32.3%) and opposing field-goal percentage (42.8%).
Alabama, the reigning SEC champion, has faced some adversity down the stretch. The team enters the postseason with a 2-3 record over its last five games, including losses against other SEC contenders like Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida. The Crimson Tide are led by one of the best point guards in the conference in Sr. Mark Sears, who averages 21.1 points per game. Sr. G Aaron Estrada and Sr. F Grant Nelson complement Sears, averaging 13.4 and 12.0 points per game, respectively. Alabama is first in the nation in points per game (90.5). Additionally, they are second and third in the SEC in field-goal percentage (47.8%) and three-point percentage (36.9%), respectively. On defense, they let opposing teams shoot 43.8% from the field – which is tenth in the SEC.
Florida is arguably the most inconsistent team among the contenders, and its last two games of the regular season prove it. After a statement 105-87 win over Alabama at home earlier last week, the Gators fell to Vanderbilt—#13 in the SEC—by a score of 79-78 in their regular-season finale on Saturday. Florida is led by their backcourt trio – made up of Jr. G Walter Clayton (17.0 PPG), Sr. G Zyon Pullin (15.7 PPG), and Jr. G Will Richard (11.2 PPG). On the inside, Sr. F Tyrese Samuel averages 13.8 points per game and a team-high 7.5 rebounds per game. Florida scores the third-most points per game in the SEC (84.9) but lets up 77.6 points per game defensively – which is eleventh in the SEC. The high-octane Gators offense attempts 65.6 field goals per game – the most in the SEC.
Meanwhile, Auburn and South Carolina boast some of the best defenses in the SEC and play at a slower tempo offensively. If the Tigers and Gamecocks can dictate the tone on offense and play smart, physical defense like they have during the regular season, they can be teams to watch out for.
On defense, Auburn surrenders a 38.8% field-goal percentage and 30.6% three-point percentage – which are both second-best in the SEC. Not only do they have one of the best defenses in the SEC, but their offense is also above average. They are fourth in the conference in points per game (83.5), third in field-goal percentage (47.3%), and fifth in three-point percentage (35.1%). Jr. F Johni Broome, who has been a dominant big man in the SEC, leads the Tigers with team-highs in points per game (16.3), rebounds per game (8.5), and blocks per game (2.3). Auburn has lost one game at home (least in the SEC), but is 5-5 on the road this season. We’ll see how that translates into success at neutral sites in the postseason.
South Carolina scores just 72.3 points per game (13th in the SEC) on the 12th-most field goals attempted per game (57.9). They are one of the most perimeter-oriented offenses in the SEC – attempting the third-most three-pointers per game (24.5) with a 33.9% three-point percentage (seventh in the SEC). Jr. G Meechie Johnson scores a team-high 14.4 points per game for the Gamecocks, while Sr. F B.J. Mack averages 13.5 points per game and 4.5 rebounds per game. Their ultra-patient offense can be tough to stop for over-eager defenses. Defensively, they allow an SEC-best 66.4 points per game. In the offensive-heavy SEC, only two teams (Auburn and Mississippi State) have dropped more than 80 points on the Gamecocks this season.
Other Teams to Watch: Texas A&M (Ovr: 18-13, Conf: 9-9), LSU (Ovr: 17-14, Conf: 9-9), Mississippi State (Ovr: 19-2, Conf: 8-10)
While none of these teams jump off the page, they will be teams to keep an eye out for.
In 2022, Texas A&M made a run all the way to the SEC Championship as the #8 seed under Head Coach Buzz Williams. This year, the Aggies find themselves in a similar spot as the #7 seed. They were ranked #15 nationwide at one point during the season but have struggled in a stacked SEC. They are led by their backcourt duo of Jr. Wade Taylor IV and Sr. Tyrece Radford, who average 18.0 and 15.5 points per game, respectively. They have wins over Kentucky, Florida, and Tennessee at home from earlier this season but have also suffered losses to squads like Arkansas (twice) and Vanderbilt, who are below them in seeding for the SEC tournament. Offensively, they are the worst three-point shooting team in the SEC, with a 27.8% three-point percentage. On the other side of the ball, they concede 69.5 points per game and a 42.1% field-goal percentage – both fourth in the SEC.
The expectations weren’t as high for Mississippi State or LSU entering the season. Still, both teams have played at a similar level as Texas A&M. The Bulldogs and Tigers have picked up some wins over good teams throughout conference play but haven’t been able to stay consistent. If either team can get hot and go on a run during the SEC tournament, they can secure an up-for-grabs bid in the Big Dance.
Mississippi State enters the tournament on a four-game losing streak, with losses to Kentucky, Auburn, Texas A&M, and South Carolina. Before the skid, they had won five straight games and had set themselves up to be in contention for one of the four double-byes that the SEC tournament offers. Bulldogs Fr. G Josh Hubbard is seventh in the SEC in points per game (16.8). On the other hand, LSU is 5-5 over its last ten games and will face Mississippi State in the opening round. Tigers Sr. G Jordan Wright leads LSU with 15.1 points per game.
